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Ebola Is Back: New Genetic Analysis Using Replikins GeneForecast™ Detected a Two-Fold Increase in Gene Replikin Counts

LONDON, July 15, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — Replikins Ltd announced today that after analyzing one year of the lowest pre-outbreak Ebola gene Replikin Counts, quantitative automated Replikins, GeneForecast™ has detected a two-fold increase (p<0.001) in the gene Replikin Counts of each of the same three Ebola virus proteins which previously, in 2012 and 2013, gave advance notice (p<0.001) of one and two years of the Ebola outbreak of 2014; and by their sudden drop in Count (p<0.001), gave a 5 month advance notice of sudden major decline in the outbreak.

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In over 3 million sequence analyses of all the data on the Pubmed database of over 16 million proteins, for a total of 41 outbreaks by 16 virus strains, all outbreaks were found to be preceded by a statistically significant increase in Replikin Count.

To improve loss protection for both lives and the economies affected, and to reduce insurance costs, Replikins technology may be useful to help to structure pre-outbreak public health and insurance plans to benefit from both the advance warning of outbreaks and the advance determination of particular virus gene courses and specific vaccines.

Current repeat analyses by GeneForecast™ every few days over the past year of all new Ebola virus specimens in Pubmed were designed to detect any significant gene change, as they did in 2012, 2013, and 2014 for Ebola, in 2003 to 2008 for the H1N1 Pandemic of 2009, and for repeated outbreaks of H5N1, H3N2, H5N2, Chikungunya, Dengue Fever, Infectious Salmon Anemia Virus, Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and others.

900,000 independent automatic quantitative analyses of sequences of the Ebola protein genes was undertaken as new specimens were published on Pubmed to confirm or amend both the warning rise and the sudden drop which occurred. The initial report was accurate: the drop was from the highest Ebola Replikin Counts ever recorded to the lowest Ebola Counts ever recorded, and the low Counts persisted for one year.  The outbreak unexpectedly and suddenly was clinically massively reduced five months later. A similar sudden drop in gene Replikin Counts (p<0.001) was previously also observed by the same method in the SARS 2003 outbreak; and it was followed by the similar abrupt cessation of the outbreak.

Retrospectively, GeneForecast™ was found to have given advance warning of the Ebola outbreak of 2014, by finding increased gene Replikin Counts related to rapid replication in several Ebola proteins two years in advance, and one year in advance of the outbreak (p<0.001).

Then prospectively, at the height of the outbreak, GeneForecast™ recorded a large Replikin Count drop from December 2013 to August 2014 (p<0.001).  The prediction of the possibility of early cessation of the outbreak was published prospectively in October 2014, and early cessation occurred in January 2015.

The gene course of SARS and Ebola, both highly lethal (10-90% fatality rate), were different from the course of the H1N1 pandemic of 2009. H1N1 had a much lower Replikin Count, much lower lethality (1-2% fatality rate), and had a less severe drop in Counts which was followed by recurrent H1N1 outbreaks from 2010 to 2015, most recently in Canada, India, and South Africa.

Throughout the year 2014, to early 2015, the Ebola gene Replikin Counts™ have remained at the lowest of pre-outbreak levels since 1976 when Ebola was first recognized. GeneForecast™ has now signaled that the Replikin Counts have begun their build-up, having increased two-fold in the genes of the same Ebola proteins whose further increase in 2012-2013 gave one and two years advance notice of the 2014 Ebola outbreak.

The new Synthetic Replikins Ebola Vaccine™ has produced an immunogenic response in animals.

A Replikins Vaccine Consortium has been formed at a meeting of the International Society for Neglected Tropical Disease meeting at the Wellcome Trust in London in May 2015.

For further information contact:

Samuel Bogoch, MD, PhD