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2012 'State Fair' Swine Flu H3N2 Outbreak in U.S. Was Correctly Predicted by Increase in Genomic Replikin®Count Two Years Earlier

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LONDON, Nov. 29, 2012 /PRNewswire/ — Bioradar UK Ltd today concluded that an increase in the genomic Replikin®Counts of H3N2 virus (Swine Flu) in the U.S. from 2008 to 2011 correctly predicted the 'State Fair' H3N2 swine flu outbreaks of this past summer in pigs and children (see photo). The same method measuring genomic H1N1 in Mexico also predicted the 2009 Pandemic a year before its emergence, and with H5N1 in Cambodia, two years before the recent outbreaks (1-5).

(Photo: )

In the recent 'State Fair' summer 2012 outbreaks, the contacts between pigs and children was well documented as was the emergence of viral disease. In the present study, 7,804 replikins infectivity gene sequences and 7,112 replikins lethality gene sequences were analyzed, all that were present in Pubmed bank listings from 1968 to 2011. The evolution of H3N2 virus infectivity gene Replikin®Counts in the USA, were relatively constant at a low level of rapid replication, that is with Counts below 4.0 Replikins (per 100 genomic amino acids).

The Counts increased markedly from 2008 to 2011 so that in 2011, 21.9% of the sequences in the virus population had Counts greater than 4.0, the highest on Pubmed record since 1968 and sixty times higher than the Counts 1968-1997. This peak Count of 2011 was followed by the H3N2 outbreak in 2012 (see photo). As in other influenza strains, some Replikin sequences in H3N2 genes were found to be conserved back to the 1960s, the earliest dates of H3N2 sequences reported on Pubmed, helping in the formulation of lasting vaccines.

No instance has been observed to date in which a statistically significant (p<0.001) increase or decrease in Replikin®Counts did not correlate with an outbreak or clinical decrease respectively and there were no 'false negatives' (1-5):  H1N1 (2008 prediction for the 2009 pandemic, 2010 for the 2010 outbreak, 2011 for 2012 outbreak); H5N1 (1996 for 1997, 2005 for 2006-07, 2009 for 2011 outbreak); three influenza pandemics of the past century; SARS (2003 for 2004); Foot and Mouth Disease (2010 for 2011-12); E. Coli (2005-2010 for 2011); and malaria (for 1998-2006 decrease in mortality).

Because all of the data in eight trials indicate that the rising Replikin®Count is accurately predictive of outbreaks, Bioradar UK Ltd has proposed that it is now time to try to prevent the next flu outbreaks. The risks of human as well as animal mortality are for the first time predictable, the specific Replikin chemistry of the coming pathogen's genome for the first time predictable, and time is thus made available for the first time, one to two years in advance, to organize public health responses and to produce, to adequately test and to distribute vaccines and therapeutic agents.

Since the geographic site of the outbreak is for the first time predictable by the Replikin Counts, as shown by Bioradar in Mexico, in Indonesia, in Cambodia, and now in the U.S. (1-5), it is hoped that national governments, medical schools, and pharmaceutical companies now will join with Bioradar UK Ltd. to test the possibility that the development of outbreaks and pandemics in their geographic site may actually be prevented.

Synthetic Replikin TransFlu®Vaccines (including H3N2 2012) are available to institutions for testing.

Contact Replikins:  646-320-5910; Email

1. <>website, 2006-2012
2. Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Genome Replikin Count™ Predicts Increased Infectivity/Lethality of Viruses. Nature Precedings npre20127144. O4April 2012.
3. Bogoch, S. and Bogoch, E.S. Prediction of specific virus outbreaks made from the increased concentration of a new class of virus genomic peptides, replikins. Nature Precedings doi:10.1038/npre.2011.6279.1.23Aug 2011.
4. Bogoch,S. and Bogoch, ES. Bogoch Replikins Pandemic Prevention: Increase of Strain-Specific Influenza Genomic Replikin Counts, Having Predicted Outbreaks and their Location Seven Times Consecutively, Up to Two Years in Advance, Provides Time for Prevention of Pandemics. Nature Precedings.doi:10.1038/npre.2012.6952.1 01 March, 2012
5. UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) discussion of Replikins, DVM Newsmagazine, (Sept. 8, 2011). Reproduced in Report #42 ,